SÃO PAULO, Brazil — Nearly 160 million Brazilians vote today, Sunday, October 25, in a presidential runoff so close that no pollster will call it — a dead-heat choice between the country's left-wing incumbent and the son of its jailed former president, with consequences stretching from the Amazon rainforest to Washington, Beijing and New Delhi.
Polling stations open at 8 a.m. and close at 5 p.m. Brasília time (4:30 p.m. IST to 1:30 a.m. IST on Monday). Because Brazil votes on electronic machines, first results will start appearing from 5 p.m. Brasília time — and a winner is usually clear within hours of polls closing.
Head to head: incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (left) and challenger Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (right). Composite of free-license portraits: Lula official portrait by Ricardo Stuckert/PR (CC BY 2.0); Flávio Bolsonaro by Agência Senado (CC BY-SA 4.0), via Wikimedia Commons.
The race in numbers: a statistical tie
Every major final poll published on Saturday, October 24, put the two men within a couple of points of each other — well inside the margin of error in most cases. Reuters summarised the picture bluntly: the two are "about even" heading into voting day.
Final pre-vote polls (share of vote):
- Datafolha: Flávio Bolsonaro 48%, Lula 47% (4,050 people surveyed October 23–24; margin of error 2 points)
- CNT/MDA: Bolsonaro 46.3%, Lula 45.0% (2,032 people, October 21–23; margin of error 2.2 points)
- Quaest: Bolsonaro 46%, Lula 45% (3,702 people, October 23–24; margin of error 2 points)
- AtlasIntel/Bloomberg: Bolsonaro 49.9%, Lula 48.4% (4,990 people, October 18–23; margin of error 1 point)
- BTG/Nexus: Bolsonaro 47.0%, Lula 46.0% (2,000 people, October 23–24; margin of error 2.2 points)
On paper, Bolsonaro leads in all five. In practice, leads of one to two points with margins of error of two points or more mean the same thing: nobody knows who will win. And there is a warning from round one — the polls got it wrong then. Most surveys before October 4 had Lula ahead. He finished second.
How Brazil got here: the shock of October 4
The first round on October 4 stunned Brazil's political class. Flávio Bolsonaro, a 45-year-old senator, finished first with 47.03% of valid votes — roughly 56 million ballots — against 45.16% (about 54 million) for Lula, according to Brazil's electoral court. Neither man cleared the 50% of valid votes needed to win outright, so the top two advanced to today's runoff, where whoever gets more valid votes wins. Blank and invalid ballots do not count toward either total.
The shock went beyond the presidency. In legislative elections held the same day, Bolsonaro's Liberal Party appeared to win the most seats in both houses of Congress, giving the right a powerful base whatever happens today. No first-round runner-up has gone on to win a Brazilian presidential runoff since democracy returned in 1985 — a piece of history Lula's camp is now trying to defy.
Both men closed their campaigns on Saturday with huge street rallies: Lula addressed what was described as possibly the biggest rally of his career on São Paulo's Paulista Avenue, after a morning rally on Rio's Copacabana beach, telling supporters "the people have taken it upon themselves to lead the campaign." Bolsonaro rallied supporters in his native Rio de Janeiro and in Belo Horizonte, capital of Minas Gerais — the bellwether state that has pointed to the national winner for decades.
The incumbent: Lula, 80, fighting for a fourth term
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 80, of the Workers' Party (PT), is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term. He previously served as president from 2003 to 2010, left office as one of the world's most popular leaders, and returned to power by beating Jair Bolsonaro in 2022.
His pitch is continuity with a social edge: protecting welfare programmes, expanding the Bolsa Família cash-transfer scheme — boosted by 15% in the campaign's closing days, along with temporary fuel-tax relief and small-business credit relief — raising the minimum wage, and defending the Amazon from illegal mining and deforestation. His camp has framed the election as a defence of social rights, national sovereignty and democratic institutions, and has spent the three weeks since round one trying to persuade the millions who stayed home to turn out.
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. (Official portrait by Ricardo Stuckert/PR, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons)
The challenger: Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, and the family name
Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, is the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who led Brazil from 2019 to 2023 and is now serving a 27-year prison sentence over a coup plot following his 2022 defeat by Lula. Flávio has made his father's fate central to his campaign, promising to pursue amnesty for him — and, in a striking pledge, to end presidential re-election altogether. "I only need one term," he told supporters after round one, calling his first-round win "the end of the PT era."
His platform is built on the issues voters say matter most. A Quaest survey cited during the campaign put violence first at 31%, followed by corruption (20%), the economy (19%) and healthcare (12%). Bolsonaro promises a hard crackdown on crime, including building hundreds of thousands of new prison places, a libertarian programme of spending restraint, and closer alignment with the United States.
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro. (Photo: Agência Senado, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons)
The 33 million voters who could decide everything
The most important number in this election may not be in any poll. More than 33 million people — roughly 21% of an electorate of nearly 160 million — did not vote in the first round. Voting is compulsory in Brazil for citizens aged 18 to 70, with a small fine for unjustified abstention, but those who skipped round one are still allowed to vote today.
Both campaigns spent the final week chasing exactly these voters: small agricultural towns, Amazon mining communities, older voters and Bolsa Família recipients. In the Amazon town of Mucajaí, where nearly 79% backed Bolsonaro in round one, many voters told reporters they hoped a Bolsonaro win would end Lula's crackdown on illegal gold mining in Yanomami Indigenous territory. In small farming and evangelical towns, Bolsonaro won 79% in round one, against 53% for his father in 2022's first round — a measure of how far Lula's support has slipped in the interior. With undecided voters estimated at between 7% and 14% in the final days, turnout today — not persuasion — may be what settles it.
Why the whole world is watching
Le Monde calls this the most significant vote of the year outside the United States, alongside America's November 3 midterm elections — and for good reason. Brazil is Latin America's largest economy, the world's biggest exporter of several farm commodities, and home to most of the Amazon, the rainforest the planet relies on as a carbon store.
A Lula win keeps Brazil on its current course: welfare spending, Amazon protection, multilateralism and a degree of distance from Washington. A Bolsonaro win would, in Le Monde's analysis, shift all of South America except Uruguay into Washington's orbit and the camp of the radical right. The Associated Press notes it would add Brazil to a list of Latin American countries — including Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica and Peru — that have recently elected allies of US President Donald Trump.
The Trump question itself is more complicated than the slogans suggest. Flávio Bolsonaro is widely described as the Trump-aligned candidate, and Trump defended Jair Bolsonaro fiercely after his 2022 defeat. But Sky News reported that Trump has not publicly endorsed either candidate in this runoff, while Lula has accused his opponent of plotting with the Trump administration and warned Washington against encroaching on Brazil's sovereignty. What is not in doubt is the direction of travel if Bolsonaro wins: his allies have already signalled plans to pursue changes to the Supreme Court and to seek the impeachment of Justice Alexandre de Moraes, the judge who oversaw his father's case. The courts, Congress and the Amazon would all feel a Bolsonaro presidency within months.
Why this matters for India
For Indian readers, this is not a distant South American drama. India and Brazil are both members of BRICS and leading voices of the Global South, and they have spent recent years pushing together for a bigger say in global institutions, from the UN Security Council to climate finance. A Lula government keeps that partnership on its current, sovereignty-first footing. A Bolsonaro government aligned closely with Washington would change the chemistry inside BRICS — and inside every negotiation where the Global South tries to speak with one voice.
There is a commercial angle too: Brazil is a major supplier of farm goods and energy, and Indian companies trade and invest across Latin America. A sharp policy turn in Brasília — on trade, on the Amazon, on relations with the US and China — ripples through commodity prices and supply chains that reach Indian markets. And there is a democratic lesson both countries share: in a polarised age, elections are increasingly decided not by the committed, but by the millions who almost stay home.
What happens next
Watch three things. (1) Turnout: if the 33 million first-round abstainers show up in large numbers, the polls' narrow Bolsonaro leads may not survive contact with reality. (2) The count: Brazil's electronic voting system publishes results from 5 p.m. Brasília time (1:30 a.m. IST Monday), and a result is usually clear within hours — though a margin as tight as the polls suggest could mean a long night. (3) The reaction: voters in Acre, Amazonas, Espírito Santo, Tocantins and the Federal District are also choosing governors in runoffs today, and the new Congress is already tilted right — so even a Lula victory would face a hostile legislature.
One caution from round one applies to everything written about this race: the polls missed the first round badly. Treat every prediction — including this article's — as a snapshot, not a verdict. By Monday morning IST, Brazil will have given the real answer.
FAQs: Brazil presidential runoff 2026
When will we know who won Brazil's election?
Polls close at 5 p.m. Brasília time on Sunday, October 25 (1:30 a.m. IST on Monday, October 26). Brazil's electoral court begins publishing results immediately, and because voting is electronic, a winner is usually clear within hours — though a very tight margin could take longer.
Who is leading in the polls?
Flávio Bolsonaro leads narrowly in all five final polls (48–47, 46.3–45.0, 46–45, 49.9–48.4 and 47–46), but every lead is within or barely outside the margin of error, so pollsters describe the race as a statistical tie. The polls also wrongly had Lula ahead before the first round.
Why is there a runoff at all?
No candidate won more than 50% of valid votes in the first round on October 4 (Bolsonaro 47.03%, Lula 45.16%). Brazil's rules send the top two to a second round, where whoever wins more valid votes takes the presidency.
What do the two candidates stand for?
Lula offers welfare spending, Amazon protection and multilateralism, and seeks a fourth term. Flávio Bolsonaro offers a crime crackdown, spending restraint, amnesty for his jailed father and closer alignment with the United States, and has pledged to end presidential re-election.
Why does Brazil's election matter for India and the world?
Brazil is Latin America's largest economy, holds most of the Amazon, and is a key BRICS partner for India. A Lula win preserves a sovereignty-first Global South course; a Bolsonaro win would pull the region's biggest economy closer to Washington and reshape debates on trade, climate and global governance.
Sources: Reuters; Le Monde; Associated Press; Sky News; Brazil's Superior Electoral Court results and polling data via Datafolha, CNT/MDA, Quaest, AtlasIntel and BTG/Nexus. Photos: Ricardo Stuckert/PR and Agência Senado, via Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 2.0 / CC BY-SA 4.0).