WASHINGTON/FORT MYERS, United States — A top US envoy said on Friday that American forces could "absolutely" launch strikes against Iran as soon as this weekend — and President Donald Trump, asked about it hours later, claimed he knew nothing about the remark while warning Tehran to cut a deal or face "another little Epic Fury."
The confusing, fast-moving exchange has left the world guessing whether the United States is about to bomb Iran for the third time this year — or whether it is all brinkmanship ahead of America's November 3 midterm elections.
US President Donald Trump. On Friday he both downplayed a top envoy's warning of a weekend strike on Iran and threatened Tehran with "another little Epic Fury" if it refuses a deal. (Official White House portrait, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons)
The envoy's bombshell: "Absolutely"
Tom Barrack — the US ambassador to Turkey and Washington's special envoy for Syria — made the striking comments in an interview with podcaster Mario Nawfal while visiting the Gulf. Asked directly whether a US strike on Iran could come this weekend, Barrack answered without hesitation: "Absolutely."
Barrack, a longtime friend and business partner of Trump, paired the threat with an open door: the president, he said, "is very clear. He's open and available and accessible to a deal and we've been at the table for months and months and months."
Crucially, Barrack said any American action would not aim to topple Iran's government — a direct contradiction of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has repeatedly called for the removal of Iran's clerical regime. "If you keep threatening the world, our allies, the Gulf, there will be a consequence. The consequence won't be regime change," Barrack said, adding that Trump had ruled out regime change because "the problem with regime change always is, what's the day-two scenario?"
Trump's reply: "I don't know anything about it" — and a threat
Landing in Florida on Friday, Trump was asked about Barrack's "absolutely." His response: "That was my ambassador to Turkey? He's a pretty powerful man, I guess. Well, if that's the case, I don't know anything about it."
But hours later, at a Republican campaign rally in Fort Myers, Trump sounded very different — warning Iran to reach a deal or face a repeat of America's recent military campaigns: "We may do another little Epic Fury, or they'll agree. If they're smart, they'll just say, let's get down to business."
He referred to two US military operations — Operation Midnight Hammer and Operation Epic Fury — claiming they had destroyed Iran's nuclear enrichment capabilities and crippled its military and economy. "We obliterated Iran's nuclear enrichment capacity with Operation Midnight Hammer," he said. He gave no timeline, no negotiating framework, and no specific conditions for Tehran to avoid another round of strikes.
Earlier in the day, on the White House South Lawn, Trump said the US could end the confrontation quickly but questioned whether Washington should seek a swift conclusion or let it wind down: "We could end it very quickly. Do we want to finish it off or just want to let it wither?" He added that oil was moving through the Strait of Hormuz — "We are getting everything we want."
File photo: the US Navy aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) transits the Strait of Hormuz. About a fifth of the world's oil moves through the waterway, which Trump has claimed is flowing freely under US Navy protection. (Photo: US Navy, public domain, via Wikimedia Commons)
The diplomacy track: talks, Moscow, and a firm "no" on timing
Behind the threats, a diplomatic channel is moving too. According to CBS News, 18 hours of talks produced what Vice President JD Vance called a "good day," with Iran agreeing to resume international (IAEA) nuclear inspections and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi announced that consultations will continue in Moscow next week, with President Masoud Pezeshkian set to meet Vladimir Putin. Tehran has separately warned it could take a "more proactive" defensive approach if attacked again, and Iranian officials have reportedly floated plans to strike undersea communications cables in the Gulf if war resumes.
On timing, the White House has repeatedly signaled restraint: Trump said on Truth Social on October 8 that the US would not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, and the White House told Drop Site this week that it denied plans for strikes before the midterms. Gas prices, meanwhile, have become a domestic political issue — with petrol averaging $4.18 a gallon in southwest Florida, Trump defended the war's cost as a "small price to pay" to stop Iran getting a nuclear weapon.
Why the mixed signals matter
This is classic Trump-era brinkmanship: maximum pressure from an envoy, a public downplay from the president, and a rally-stage threat — all within 24 hours. But there are two genuinely new and dangerous elements:
1. The split with Israel. Barrack explicitly ruled out regime change — while Netanyahu, four days before Israel's October 27 election, keeps demanding exactly that. Washington and Jerusalem are visibly on different pages about the war's end goal.
2. The election clock. US midterms are 10 days away. Trump has promised no strikes before November 3, but his own envoy is talking about this weekend. Iran has to guess which voice is real — and miscalculation is how wars restart.
For Gulf states and the eight foreign ministers who met in Istanbul on Friday to urge restraint, the message is clear: the region's most dangerous confrontation is back at the edge, and nobody is entirely sure what Washington will do next.
Why this matters for India
India has huge stakes in whatever happens next. Roughly a fifth of the world's oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and India's energy imports — and its consumers' petrol prices — move with that supply. Any disruption would hit India's economy directly.
New Delhi has consistently called for de-escalation: External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar reaffirmed India's commitment to supporting peace efforts in Ukraine and West Asia this week, and India has kept diplomatic channels open with both Washington and Tehran. India is also quietly dealing with its own crisis in the region — it said this week it was ascertaining details of an incident involving 14 Indian nationals on a yacht off Yemen, after the Houthis claimed they were rescuing them following a reported Saudi attack. Stability in the Gulf is, for India, not an abstract concern.
What happens next
Watch three things this weekend and next week: (1) whether Washington issues any new statement matching — or walking back — Barrack's "absolutely"; (2) the Moscow talks, where Pezeshkian meets Putin; and (3) any change in the US Navy's posture around the Strait of Hormuz. Until then, the standoff remains exactly where Trump left it: settle, or face "another little Epic Fury."
FAQs: US–Iran standoff, October 2026
What exactly did the US envoy say about striking Iran?
Tom Barrack, the US ambassador to Turkey and special envoy for Syria, told podcaster Mario Nawfal that a US strike on Iran could come "absolutely" this weekend. He stressed Trump remains open to a deal and ruled out regime change as a goal.
Did Trump confirm a strike is coming this weekend?
No. Asked about Barrack's remark after landing in Florida, Trump said, "If that's the case, I don't know anything about it." Hours later, however, he warned Iran of "another little Epic Fury" if it refuses a deal. The White House has said there are no plans for strikes before the November 3 US midterm elections.
What is "Operation Epic Fury"?
Trump has named it alongside Operation Midnight Hammer as US military operations that he says destroyed Iran's nuclear enrichment capacity and weakened its military and economy. Independent verification of those claims is not publicly available.
How does this affect India?
A US–Iran confrontation threatens oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which would push up energy prices in India. New Delhi has called for de-escalation and maintains ties with both Washington and Tehran.
Is a US strike actually imminent?
The signals are contradictory: an envoy warning of a weekend strike, a president denying knowledge of it while threatening "another little Epic Fury," and a White House ruling out strikes before November 3. What is certain is that both sides are keeping military options on the table.
Sources: Reuters; TBS News/Gulf News; CNA via AFP; The Seoul Economic Daily; CBS News; Al Jazeera/Anadolu reporting. Photos: White House; US Navy — via Wikimedia Commons (public domain).